NFL Championship Week Picks: Straight Up, Against the Spread, Over/Under

I haven’t made any picks yet in the playoffs, but felt like I should get some in for this week. I think I’ve got some winners for you and this week I’m going to incorporate something I plan on doing next year: over/under selections. With two money line picks, two spread picks, and two over/under picks, I think we’ve got a 6-0 day coming. Let’s get to it! (straight up pick is in bold):

Follow me on Twitter: @AdamWolff

(Spreads from Sportsbook.com as of 1/20)

Ravens +7.5 @ Patriots; OVER 51.5
This is certainly an upset, but you must remember the Ravens seem to play Tom Brady and the Patriots tougher than anyone else. If not for Lee Evans drop in the end zone at the end of last year’s game, the Patriots would have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl. I do believe the Patriots are the more talented team here, but I think you’ll see a Ravens team that wants to atone for last seasons failures, especially given Ray Lewis’ impending retirement. In their last 6 head to head matchups, Baltimore has won twice, lost by 6 once, and lost by 3 three times. This will not be a blowout. I expect this to be a very close one, coming down to who gets the ball last, and I’m going to go Ravens in a tight one. Think: 34-31.

Falcons +4 vs 49ers; OVER 49
This should really be an excellent game. Despite being doubted all season and seeming to lack respect from nearly everyone, the Falcons are one of the last 4 remaining and with a game at home, they have their best shot at moving onto the Super Bowl in quite some time. On the other side, Jim Harbaugh is starting to look pretty damn smart for making his change at QB. Instead of a solid player, like they had in Alex Smith, the QB position is now an absolute strength for this football team. I expect a lot of points in this one, too. I actually think this should be about the same score and type of game as the AFC Championship game; a shootout type of game that could come down to a late scoring drive or FG. Lets go with the Falcons to keep it close, but the 49ers to pull it out. Think: 34-31 (again).

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2012-13 NBA Picks Thread

I’m going to use this thread as an open thread to list all of the picks that I make during the NBA season. All picks are documented via my twitter account, @AdamWolff, and I will add the results to this thread as they happen. I typically make 5-10 picks per week and all the results will be housed here! See all my NBA plays for the 2012-13 season below!

Season Record: 40-23
Win Percentage: 63.5%

01/25/13 – Washington Wizards -6.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves
– Wizards win 114-101
– Result: WIN by 6.5 points

01/24/13 – Orlando Magic -4 vs Toronto Raptors
– Magic lose 95-97
– Result: LOSS by 6 points

01/23/13 – Washington Wizards +7 @ Utah Jazz
– Wizards lose 88-92
– Result: WIN by 3 points

01/23/13 – New Orleans Hornets +8 @ San Antonio Spurs
– Hornets lose 102-106
– Result: WIN by 4 points

01/23/13 – Houston Rockets -2 vs Denver Nuggets
– Rockets lose 95-105
– Result: LOSS by 12 points

01/22/13 – Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Clippers OVER 200.5
– Thunder win 109-97
– Result: WIN by 5.5 points

01/22/13 – Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers
– Bucks win 110-102
– Result: WIN by 1.5 points

01/21/13 – Washington Wizards +6 @ Portland Trailblazers
– Wizards win 98-95
– Result: WIN by 9 points

01/19/13 – Washington Wizards +11.5 @ Los Angeles Clippers
– Wizards lose 87-94
– Result: WIN by 5 points

01/18/13 – Washington Wizards +10 @ Denver Nuggets
– Wizards win 112-108
– Result: WIN by 14 points

01/18/13 – Brooklyn Nets -6 vs Atlanta Hawks
– Nets win 94-89
– Result: LOSS by 1 point

01/16/13 – Washington Wizards +5 @ Sacramento Kings
– Wizards lose 94-95
– Result: WIN by 4 points

01/16/13 – Orlando Magic +2 vs Indiana Pacers
– Orlando wins 97-86
– Result: WIN by 13 points

01/14/13 – Utah Jazz +3 vs Miami Heat
– Jazz win 104-97
– Result: WIN by 10 points

01/14/13 – Washington Wizards -2 vs Orlando Magic
– Wizards win 120-91
– Result: WIN by 27 points

01/11/13 – Brooklyn Nets -7.5 vs Phoenix Suns
– Nets win 99-79
– Result: WIN by 12.5 points

01/10/13 – Sacramento Kings -2 vs Dallas Mavericks
– Kings lose 112-117
– Result: LOSS by 7 points

01/09/13 – Denver Nuggets vs Orlando Magic OVER 204.5
– Nuggets win 108-105
– Result: WIN by 8.5 points

01/08/13 – Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers OVER 221.5
– Rockets win 125-112
– Result: WIN by 15.5 points

01/07/13 – Portland Trailblazers -6.5 vs Orlando Magic
– Blazers win 125-119
– Result: LOSS by .5 points

01/05/13 – Sacramento Kings +7 @ Brooklyn Nets
– Kings lose 93-113
– Result: LOSS by 13 points

01/04/13 – Houston Rockets -0 @ Milwaukee Bucks
– Rockets win 115-101
– Result: WIN by 14 points

01/03/13 – San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks OVER 208
– Spurs lose 83-100
– Result: LOSS by 25 points

01/02/13 – Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 @ Boston Celtics
– Grizzlies win 93-83
– Result: WIN by 7.5 points

01/01/13 – Atlanta Hawks -2 @ New Orleans Hornets
– Hawks win 95-86
– Result: WIN by 7 points

12/29/12 – Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls UNDER 180.5
– Wizards lose 77-87
– Result: WIN by 16.5 points

12/28/12 – Denver Nuggets -2.5 @ Dallas Mavericks
– Nuggets win 106-85
– Result: WIN by 18.5 points

12/28/12 – Detroit Pistons +6 vs Miami Heat
– Pistons win 109-99
– Result: WIN by 16 points

12/27/12 – Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 207.5
– Thunder win 111-105
– Result: WIN by 8.5 points

12/26/12 – Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards UNDER 187.5
– Cavaliers win 87-84
– Result: WIN by 16.5 points

12/26/12 – Washington Wizards -1 vs Cleveland Cavaliers
– Wizards lose 84-87
– Result: LOSS by 4 points

12/26/12 – Charlotte Bobcats +9.5 vs Miami Heat
– Bobcats lose 92-105
– Result: LOSS by 3.5 points

12/25/12 – Los Angeles Clippers vs Denver Nuggets OVER 203.5
– Clippers win 112-100
– Result: WIN by 8.5 points

12/25/12 – Los Angeles Lakers -4 vs New York Knicks
– Lakers win 100-94
– Result: WIN by 2 points

12/25/12 – Boston Celtics +3 @ Brooklyn Nets
– Celtics win 93-76
– Result: WIN by 20 points

12/20/12 – Portland Trailblazers +5.5 vs Denver Nuggets
– Blazers win 101-93
– Result: WIN by 13.5 points

12/20/12 – Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 @ Minnesota Timberwolves
– Thunder lose 93-99
– Result: LOSS by 8.5 points

12/18/12 – Denver Nuggets -2 vs San Antonio Spurs
– Nuggets win 112-106
– Result: WIN by 4 points

12/17/12 – Detroit Pistons +7 vs Los Angeles Clippers
– Pistons lose 76-88
– Result: LOSS by 5 points

12/15/12 – Dallas Mavericks +5 @ Minnesota Timberwolves
– Mavericks lose 106-114
– Result: LOSS by 3 points

12/15/12 – Washington Wizards +15 vs Miami Heat
– Wizards lose 72-102
– Result: LOSS by 15 points

12/14/12 – Detroit Pistons +8 @ Brooklyn Nets
– Pistons lose 105-107
– Result: WIN by 6 points

12/12/12 – Atlanta Hawks -5 @ Orlando Magic
– Hawks win 86-80
– Result: WIN by 1 point

12/11/12 – Washington Wizards vs New Orleans Hornets UNDER 187.5
– Wizards win 77-70
– Result: WIN by 40.5 points

12/10/12 – Golden State Warriors -4.5 @ Charlotte Bobcats
– Warriors win 104-96
– Result: WIN by 3.5 points

12/01/12 – Milwaukee Bucks -3 vs Boston Celtics
- Bucks win 91-88
- Result: PUSH

11/28/12 – Minnesota Timberwolves +9 @ Los Angeles Clippers
– Timberwolves lose 95-101
– Result: WIN by 3 points

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NFL Week 15 Picks: Straight Up and Against the Spread

2012 NFL Season
Straight Up: 134-72-1
Against the Spread: 96-106-5

I feel like a bit of a broken record, but we were on the wrong side of a couple close spreads and it resulted in a tough week ATS. We’re still picking winners at about a 65% clip, but against the spread needs to be better, and it will be. We were 5-11 against the spread last week and 10-6 straight up. Let’s do better this week! (straight up pick is in bold):

Follow me on Twitter: @AdamWolff

(Spreads from Sportsbook.com as of 12/11)

Eagles +3.5 vs Bengals
I’m going to grab this game while I can get it at +3.5. The Eagles have been much maligned all season, but they’ve actually shown some nice improvement the last two weeks, narrowly losing in Dallas and winning on the last play of the game in Tampa. Nick Foles is providing a stability that couldn’t be found under Michael Vick and maybe, just maybe, a strong finish to the season could save Andy Reid’s job. The Bengals have all the tools to make the postseason, but you have to wonder if they’re ready for the moment after watching them squander a victory at home against the Cowboys. I think the half point is important here. If I was in the business of predicting exact margins of victory (I’m not), I’d go with the Bengals by 3, so let’s take them to win, but the Eagles to stay within the number.

Giants +1 @ Falcons
This should be an excellent game between two of the top teams in the NFC. I expect the Giants to be a popular pick here, but that’s not going to dissuade me from taking them. It’s a pretty common thought these days that the Falcons have been imposters all season. If you look at their schedule, it really hasn’t been that difficult and they’e often just managed to win games against inferior opponents. To further prove that, they have the easiest strength of schedule in the league, with their opponents having just a .391 win percentage. However, wins are wins, and you are what your record says you are, and for the Falcons, that’s 11-2. On the other side, this is around the time the Giants start to get dangerous. They’ve worked through their usual early/mid season lull and are rounding into form just in time for the playoffs. I honestly think they’re the better football team here, so let’s take them to pick up a nice road victory in Atlanta.

Saints -3.5 vs Bucs
I’m going to the well once more as, perhaps I’m just a glutton for punishment, but I’m backing the Saints again this weekend. Look folks, the Saints can’t stop anyone and they won’t stop the Bucs. I’m imagining they’ll give up somewhere north of 28 points. It’s difficult to take a team that you know will give up that many points, but I just think the Bucs are going to have even more trouble containing the Saints. The Bucs have the worst pass defense in the league, giving up an impressively high 311 yards per game. Drew Brees should have a field day with that, just as he did in Tampa back on Week 7. Expect a shoot out, expect to see some scowling defensive coordinators, and expect the Saints to pull out the victory. Take them to cover the 3 points.

Packers -3 @ Bears
In what should be another very entertaining game, I like the Packers to go into Chicago and pick up a win. I take a look at the Bears schedule and I see a team that plays great against average teams and seems to disappear against the top teams. Due to their propensity for the big play, the defense is now grossly overrated by the media and public, especially without Brian Urlacher. The offensive line can’t protect Cutler at all and he’s really showing the signs of playing 12 games behind them (missed 1 due to injury). The Packers are far from perfect themselves, missing defensive star Clay Matthews, but it doesn’t take an elite defense to keep the Bears offense at bay and Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t have much trouble against, as I said, an overrated and overhyped defense that is completely reliant on turnovers to get stops. Take the Pack to win by more than 3 here.

Rams -3 vs Vikings
This is a game that I went back and forth on a few times, but ultimately landed on backing the home team giving 3 points. The Rams have won 3 straight and are 4-2 at home (officially 4-3, but one ‘home’ game was in London) and at 6-6-1, their playoff aspiration are still alive. On the other side, the Vikings, too, find themselves in the hunt for a surprising playoff berth, sitting at 7-6 going into the week. The Vikings have one offensive weapon and despite everyone knowing that, no one seems to be able to stop it. Adrian Peterson has 1600 rushing yards on the dot and has said he hopes to break Eric Dickerson’s rushing record this season. I don’t know about all that, but I do know that it will be priority #1 for the Rams to contain AP as best as possible. The Vikings are also a different team on the road, going just 1-5 on the season. This should be a close game, likely low scoring, but let’s take the Rams to do just enough to cover the number.

Browns -0 vs Redskins
The only line I could find here was as a pick-em, so I’m going to take the Browns. The Browns have really flown under the radar this season, as people see them at the bottom of their division and assume, ‘Same old sorry Browns’. That’s just not the case, though. Since starting 0-5, the Browns are 5-3, suffering 3 losses in games they were certainly in at the end. They’re 4-3 at home, including a couple impressive victories over the Bengals and Steelers. This line (and my pick) is obviously influenced by the strong chance that RG3 will not play, and I’m banking on that being the case. Kirk Cousins has proven himself to be a viable backup in limited action, but it just changes the dynamic of the team when your leader is not out there. I think the Browns pick up a solid victory here and perhaps open a few eyes in the process.

Dolphins -7 vs Jags
Something just feels wrong about giving the Dolphins 7 points, but not nearly as wrong as asking the Jaguars to stay inside any number. The Dolphins are not a good team by any stretch of imagination, but they’ve got a heck of a lot more going for them than the Jaguars, arguably the worst team in the NFL. I really don’t think there’s much else to be said about this one; take the Dolphins to win big.

Broncos -3 @ Ravens
It’s difficult to find a team that’s hotter than the Broncos. They’ve won 8 straight, all by at least 7 points. Peyton Manning is having one of the best seasons of his career and definitely has fans in Denver thinking about that Lombardi Trophy. In Baltimore, things are going as well. Much maligned offensive coordinator Cam Cameron was relieved of his duties earlier this week, and while you could see some offensive improvement, offense really wasn’t the issue. The fact of the matter is that the Ravens defense is not nearly what it once was and even though they’re still a very good home team, I don’t see how they will be able to stop Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense. I expect a good game, probably more high scoring than some would expect, with the Broncos pulling it out. If you like to buy points, I’d considering buying this one down to 2.5, but I’m taking the Broncos at -3.

Texans -8 vs Colts
A lot of people might see this and think, ‘How can you take a Texans team that just got clobbered by the Patriots over one of the hottest, up-and-coming teams in the league!?’. Well, it’s simple. The public is going to love the Colts in this spot, but the sharp money (re: guys who actually profit) will be backing the Texans and that’s where you want to be. The last time the Texans got embarassed on national TV? They responded with a 43-13 beatdown of the Ravens. They’ll be playing with a chip on their shoulder, for sure. The Colts are a good story and should be good for years to come, but they are a bit of a fake 9-4. Aside from Green Bay, they don’t have any wins over teams that would make the playoffs as of right now. They’re also just 3-3 on the road this season, including blowout losses at the Jets and Patriots. I expect the Texans to win big here, so bet them with confidence, they will take care of business.

Bills +5.5 vs Seahawks
I’m expecting this game to be a bit closer than some people think. The Bills aren’t a very good football team, but as I said before, with Fred Jackson out, CJ Spiller touches the ball more and that’s much better for the team as a whole. The Seahawks are coming off an absolute demolition of the Cardinals, 58-0. That game was at home, though, and the Seahawks are a different team on the road. All 5 of the Seahawks losses have come on the road, and while I don’t think they will lose this game, I think it will be close. It’s not a traditional home game for the Bills, either, as this one will be the annual game up in Canada, but I think they should be able to keep this close enough to cover the points. Let’s take them to cover, but the Seahawks to win.

Carolina +3 @ Chargers
In a battle of two teams I’ve faded all season, I’m going to look for Cam Newton to keep things going and will the Panthers to a victory in San Diego. I don’t want to downplay the Chargers win in Pittsburgh, but it just seemed flukey to me. You have to give the Chargers credit where credit is due, but I don’t think they turned over a new leaf or anything like that. The Panthers also aren’t a very good team, but Cam proved last week that he can single-handedly carry them to victory if he so chooses. I’m not a fan of either of these teams and this might be a battle of who makes less mistakes, so let’s take the Panthers to cover the spread and pull the upset on the road.

Lions -6.5 @ Cardinals
Everything about this spot indicates I should take the Cardinals: coming off a tough loss with something to prove, better at home than on the road, 90% of the public is on the Lions but the line has moved down at some books, etc. But I just can’t. The Cardinals, aside from having a serviceable defense, don’t really do anything well. It’s not just dumb luck that they’ve only scored 6 points in their last 2 games. They can’t run or pass the ball and they’re only offensive weapon, Larry Fitzgerald, barely touches the ball anymore. They’re a mess of a team and despite the fact that Detroit can’t seem to do anything right either, they’re clearly better. I think Detroit lets out a bit of the frustration of their season this week and pounds the Cardinals, so let’s take them to cover the 6.5 points.

Steelers -2 @ Cowboys
The Steelers kept hitting snooze on their alarm clock last week, and by the time they woke up they were down 27-3. They end up controlling the rest of the game, but the damage was done and they picked up an awful loss at home against the Chargers. It will get more difficult this week, as they head to Dallas for a Superbowl 30 rematch. The Cowboys are actually playing pretty good football lately, winners of 4 of 5 and firmly in the hunt for a wildcard spot, or even a division title. I think last week was a wake up call for Pittsburgh and I expect a big bounce back here. This game will go a long way for both teams in determining if they’re playing in the postseason, and who would you rather have to win a big game: Ben Roethlisberger or Tony Romo? Me too. Let’s take the Steelers -2.

Raiders -3 vs Chiefs
So far, I’ve been able to say how great some of these games are this week. This is not one of those situations. Just 5 wins between the two of these teams, they’re two thirds of the season why the Broncos were the first to lock up their division. This will be a mess of a game and I genuinely feel sorry for anyone who lives close enough to either of these markets to get this as your late game. I’m going to take the Raiders, purely because I think they’re the better team. The key word is think, as this one is really just a toss up to see which team will be slightly less awful. Let’s pick the Raiders for that.

Patriots -6 vs 49ers
This is a tough one, and it should be an enjoyable game. I wouldn’t be shocked if the 49ers could stay inside the number, but I’m looking to back the Pats here. If you could make a case for any team being hotter than Denver, it would be the Patriots. They’ve won 7 in a row and as I said last week, their 3 losses are by a total of 4 points. In other words, they’re a couple of breaks away from being undefeated. They are as good right now as anyone and they would for nothing more than another opportunity to show that to the world. The 49ers are a great team and if anyone is capable of beating New England right now, the 49ers are. I just see the Patriots defense being able to give Kaepernick more trouble than anyone will be able to give Brady. Let’s take the Patriots to cover the 6 points.

Titans -2 vs Jets
I’m not sure when this could have seemed like a good idea as your Week 15 Monday Night Football game, but alas, we must play the hand we’re dealt. The Jets have actually won 3 out of 4, but there’s really no reason to be excited about that. Wins over the Jaguars and Cardinals don’t really count anymore and the one loss that’s sprinkled in there was of the blowout variety to the Patriots. The Titans aren’t particularly good either, but they did get up to play in their last nationally televised game at home against the Steelers, so perhaps we see something similar. Chris Johnson should have a field day against a porous Jets run defense, so let’s take him to shoulder the load and lead the Titans to victory. Take them -2.

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NFL Week 14 Picks: Straight Up and Against the Spread

2012 NFL Season
Straight Up: 124-66-1
Against the Spread: 91-95-5

Another tough week, losing a couple of real close ones. It was 7-9 against the spread and 8-8 straight up. Let’s do better this week! (straight up pick is in bold):

Follow me on Twitter: @AdamWolff

(Spreads from Sportsbook.com as of 12/06)

Raiders +10.5 vs Broncos
I really, really like the Raiders against the spread in this spot. I saw a stat that over the last 4 or 5 seasons, home underdogs of more than 8 points are 75% against the spread. Then, Paul Harkins (@PHark51) tweeted an equally impressive stat: in those same situations, home dogs, greater than 8 points, 22-1 against the spread in the last 23 games! Peyton is great and I absolutely expect them to win the game, but look for this to be closer than you might think. Take the Raiders +10.5 and the Broncos to win.

(write ups for picks coming soon!)

Redskins -2.5 vs Ravens
The Redskins may be getting a touch overvalued here, but if the Ravens can lose at home against Charlie Batch, it’s tough to support them on the road against RG3. I hate to use generic terms like this, but Robert Griffin III just has an undeniable will to win. People have mentioned Cam Newton a lot when talking RG3, and RG3 is everything Newton is and more. He’s got a maturity, a poise, about him that is extremely rare in young QBs. I actually think this game could be a somewhat easy win for the Skins, given the Ravens injuries on defense and overall ineptitude on the road. Take the Redskins -2.5.

Chiefs +6.5 vs Browns
Obviously, the Chiefs are still playing with heavy hearts. I didn’t get a chance to comment last week, but my thoughts are definitely with the family and all those affected by the awful tragedy that occured last week. A football game seems trivial when considering matters of life and death, but the Chiefs had to play on Sunday, and it was great to see them come together, maybe get a couple hour relief from the difficulties of the reality of their situation, and win a football game. It’s tough to guess what you’ll get out of them this week, but I think we might see a similar situation as last week: a group of guys banding together in difficult times. Let’s take the Chiefs +6.5.

Colts -5.5 vs Titans
Everything that I said above about RG3, yep, it applies to Andrew Luck as well. The Colts are 8-4, winners of 6 of their last 7, and now the talk is starting to shift from ‘Hey, those guys could make the playoffs’ to ‘Hey, this is a pretty damn good team’. To play devils advocate, they may be starting to get a bit overrated. There’s clearly plenty of hype around Luck, and it can’t be ignored that of their 8 wins, only 1 was against a team that will make the playoffs. The Titans are 4-8, Chris Johnson has done some nice things, but this season is mostly forgettable for them. I think the Colts should roll here, potentially in double digit fashion, so let’s back them as a 5.5 point home favorite.

Jets -2.5 @ Jags
What a matchup this is: the 5-7, Days of Our Lives-esque Jets come in to face the mighty, 2-10 Jaguars. I actually expected the Jags to play well last week in Buffalo, and as usual, they fell flat. They’ve got a load of injuries on an already bad offense, so this week you’ll be seeing the likes of Kevin Elliott starting at wide receiver and Montell Owens starting at running back. The Jets are an absolute joke as well, but they’re the more talented of these two punch lines. They should win this game, probably in an ugly, unimpressive fashion. I have to make a pick, so I’m taking the Jets, but my true advice is do what feels natural and what most people will do, and that’s pretend this game doesn’t exist.

Steelers -7.5 vs Chargers
Using the arm of veteran (he turned 38 on Wednesday!) quarterback Charlie Batch, the Steelers got a huge, albeit unlikely, victory in Baltimore over the Ravens. Batch will return to his seat on the bench as the Steelers will welcome back Big Ben on Sunday, and welcome in the San Diego Chargers. I haven’t calculated this, but there’s a very good chance the Chargers are the team that I have faded the most this season. The Chargers have lost 4 straight and 7 of their last 8, so it’s safe to say they’re in midseason form. They’re traveling across the country, half of their wins are against the Chiefs, and I’m sure everyone in that lockerroom knows major changes are coming. The Steelers should win this one pretty easily, so let’s take them minus the 7.5 points.

Bears -2.5 @ Vikings
The Bears head into Minnesota as losers of 3 out of their last 4, with the only victory being against these same Vikings. They’re fortunate, however, because the Vikings are working on a skid of their own: losers of 4 of their last 5. Without Percy Harvin, the Vikings really do just one thing well, and despite the fact that they do it really well, Adrian Peterson cannot be the entire offense and he can’t help defensively. They’re 6-6, but aside from that shocker against the 49ers, you realize there isn’t a whole lot of substance in those victories. AP might run for 200 yards, but the Bears will snap out of it and win this one by at least a FG. Take them against the spread.

Falcons -3.5 @ Panthers
I’ve been guilty of this a number of times, but boy, I cannot remember a team with the best record in the league that has consistently been the trendy pick to lose. They seem to play to the level of their competition, so I expect this to be a close game. The Panthers were in a tough spot last week, going into Kansas City in the middle of a very difficult situation. I’d imagine that affected their play, but the truth of the matter is that they’re just an average football team. The Falcons should win this one easily, but they probably won’t, so if you’re a fan of buying points, I’d consider getting the line down to 3 or 2.5, but I’m still going to back the Dirty Birds -3.5.

Bucs -7.5 vs Eagles
The Eagles lost again last week and you’ve probably already heard it, but the Phillies have won a game more recently than the Eagles. Looking at the Eagles remaining schedule, the Phillies might be the first to win again as well. On the other side, Tampa has lost a couple tough ones to a pair of Superbowl contenders, and at 6-6, this is a big spot for them. A win here would go a long way towards their push for the playoffs, and I expect a good effort against an Eagles team that looks to be thinking about tee times in South Florida. Let’s take the Bucs -7.5.

Bills -3 vs Rams
The Bills seem to be one of those teams that I’m on the wrong side of every week. Once I put some stock in them, thinking they’re a pretty respectable team, they let me down, and once I’ve written them off, they look competent again. I think this is a spot where they should play well. The Rams are coming off an emotional victory against the 49ers, and while at 5-6-1 they might be thinking about a playoff push, this could be a letdown spot. Let’s back the Bills minus a field goal.

Bengals -3 vs Cowboys
The Bengals season has really been the embodiment of the ups and downs of an NFL Season; they started 3-1, lost 4 straight, and have now won 4 straight. I feel like a broken record, but this is another team thinking playoffs, currently on the outside looking in and needing a victory. The Cowboys are playing some decent football lately, but how much stock can you really put in two victories over the Eagles? They are 6-6, though, but I don’t think they’ll be able to get the job done here, so let’s take the Bengals minus the 3 points.

49ers -10 vs Dolphins
If I were to do a lock of the week, this would be a leading candidate (right there with the Seahawks). The 49ers have a little bit of drama regarding their quarterback situation and did just lose to the Rams, but I don’t believe there’s much cause for concern. They’re better than the Dolphins at every position and this one shouldn’t be close. I’m thinking something similar to what the 49ers did to the Dolphins AFC East competition, which was 2 games, 79-3 in favor of the Niners. Take the 49ers minus the big number to win by an even bigger number.

Saints +4.5 @ Giants
Once again I find myself backing the Saints in a tough spot. Drew Brees has to have a better game after throwing 5 picks last week, and the Giants secondary can’t stop a nose bleed right now. The Saints defense isn’t anything to write home about either, so this could be the game for Eli and company to snap out of their funk. I expect this to be a back and forth, high scoring game, which is my expectation for every Saints game, and I think they’ll keep it close enough to cover the 4.5. So let’s take the Saints to cover, but the Giants to win.

Seahawks -10 vs Cardinals
In the other lopsided game of the week, you’ve got arguably the best team in the league when playing at home welcoming a team that didn’t record a victory in October or November. It seems like it’s been quite a long time since the Cards were 4-0 and the toast of the league. The Seahawks, somewhat quietly, have established themselves as a very solid team that is likely going to be in the playoffs. In a lot of seasons, Russell Wilson would be the front runner for Rookie of the Year, and the fact that he’s overshadowed by two other excellent rookie quarterbacks does not change the fact that he’s got his team playing good football. This game shouldn’t be close, and to be honest, I’d be shocked if the Cardinals got into double digits. Take the Seahawks -10.

Lions +6.5 @ Packers
This was a tough one for me to pick, but in the end I’m going to take the Lions to do what they seem to be best at, and that’s losing a close game. Their last 3 games have been losses by margins of 4, 3 and 2 points. I think Green Bay is probably a little bit underrated by the public as a whole, likely because they’ve lost the 3 games most people watched (49ers, Seahawks, Giants), but I just expect this to be close. I expect a close game, which Green Bay will win, so let’s take the Lions with the points, but the Pack to prevail.

Patriots -3.5 vs Texans
Let me start off by saying, this should be a good one! The Texans have won 6 straight. The Patriots have won 6 straight. The Texans are 6-0 on the road. The Patriots 3 losses are by a total of 4 points. There are plenty of statistics that support neither of these teams being able to lose, but someone has to go down. I think that someone will be the Texans, as I don’t think they’re going to have an answer for Tom Brady. That defense allowed 37 points to the Jaguars, so I have no doubt that Brady and Belichick could put up a big number. This should be a great game from two of the best in the AFC, but let’s take the Patriots to get the victory and cover the 3 point spread.

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NFL Week 13 Picks: Straight Up and Against the Spread

2012 NFL Season
Straight Up: 116-58-1
Against the Spread: 84-86-5

Tough week for us, going 5-11 against the spread and 9-7 straight up. Let’s build on last week and get to some picks! (straight up pick is in bold):

Follow me on Twitter: @AdamWolff

(Spreads from Sportsbook.com as of 11/29)

Saints +3.5 @ Falcons
This really should be an excellent high scoring match up between two teams with a lot to play for. It’s no secret that a lot of people have been questioning just how good the Falcons are and what better time for them to show the world, than on national television against the team that has owned them over the last handful of years. The Saints are in must win mode if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive, and I think Drew Brees might be able to will his team to a victory here. I feel a lot better getting 3.5 points with them, but I’m going to pick them to pull the upset as well. Take the Saints to keep their playoff push alive.

Bears -3.5 vs Seahawks

Packers -7.5 vs Vikings

Cardinals +6 @ Jets

Rams +8 vs 49ers

Panthers -6 @ Chiefs

Colts +7 @ Lions

Jags +6 @ Bills

Patriots -9 @ Dolphins

Texans -7 @ Titans

Bucs +7.5 @ Broncos

Steelers +8 @ Ravens

Bengals -1 @ Chargers

Raiders +2.5 vs Browns

Cowboys -10.5 vs Eagles

Giants -3 @ Redskins

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NFL Week 12 Picks: Straight Up and Against the Spread

2012 NFL Season
Straight Up: 107-51-1
Against the Spread: 79-75-5

Another solid week for us, going 9-5 against the spread and 11-3 straight up. Let’s build on last week and get to some picks! (straight up pick is in bold):

Follow me on Twitter: @AdamWolff

(Spreads from Sportsbook.com as of 11/22)

Texans -4 @ Lions

Cowboys -3 vs Redskins

Jets +7 vs Patriots

Bengals -8.5 vs Raiders

Steelers -2 @ Browns

Colts -3 vs Bills

Chiefs +10.5 vs Broncos

Titans -3.5 @ Jaguars

Vikings +6 @ Bears

Falcons -1.5 @ Bucs

Seahawks -3 @ Dolphins

Chargers +1 vs Ravens

49ers -1.5 @ Saints

Cardinals -1 vs Rams

Packers +2.5 @ Giants

Panthers -3 @ Eagles

Sorry for no analysis, it’s a busy holiday week! Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

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2012-13 NCAAB Picks Thread

I’m going to use this thread as an open thread to list all of the picks that I make during the NCAA Basketball season. All picks are documented via my twitter account, @AdamWolff, and I will add the results to this thread as they happen. I typically make 5-10 picks per week and all the results will be housed here! See all my NCAA Basketball plays for the 2012-13 season below!

Season Record: 3-3

11/15/12 – Auburn +3 vs Murray State
– Auburn loses 59-79
– Result: LOSS by 17 points

11/15/12 – Oregon State +2 vs Alabama
– Oregon State loses 62-65
– Result: LOSS by 1 point

11/14/12 – Santa Clara +13.5 @ Saint Louis
- Santa Clara wins 74-62
– Result: WIN by 25.5 points

11/13/12 – Duke -4 vs Kentucky
– Duke wins 75-68
– Result: WIN by 3 points

11/13/12 – Butler -4.5 @ Xavier
– Butler loses 47-62
– Result: LOSS by 19.5 points

11/09/12 – Maryland+10 vs Kentucky
- Maryland loses 69-72 
- Result: WIN by 7 points

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NFL Week 11 Picks: Straight Up and Against the Spread

2012 NFL Season
Straight Up: 96-48-1
Against the Spread: 70-70-5

A good week last week for us, going 10-3-1 straight up and 9-5 against the spread. We’re now back to even against the spread and have picked winners at a 66% clip this season. Let’s build on last week and get to some picks! (straight up pick is in bold):

Follow me on Twitter: @AdamWolff

(Spreads from Sportsbook.com as of 11/14)

Bills -2 vs Dolphins
The Thursday night games have been going down in quality all year and perhaps that culminates with a game like this, between two teams that certainly aren’t the worst in the league, but are probably you’re definition of mediocrity. A few weeks ago the Dolphins were looking like a team that could challenge for a playoff spot, but how now lost 2 in a row and will be looking to keep themselves relevant with a win. The Bills, perhaps the most unpredictable, have lost 2 in a row, but their last 2 have been competitive losses at the hands of the Texans and Patriots. Fred Jackson won’t be playing and I actually think that helps the Bills overall. CJ Spiller is an elite talent, averaging 7.3 YPC to Jackson’s 4, and being forced to put the ball in his hands another 10 or 15 times per game will only result in good things. Take the Bills to win this one and cover the number.

Redskins -3.5 vs Eagles
A battle of struggling NFC East foes, the Eagles come in losers of 5 straight and 6 out of 7, while the Redskins are just narrowly better, losing 3 straight and 4 out of their last 5. At this time it’s unknown whether Mike Vick will suit up, but whether it’s Vick or Foles, this Eagles team is in absolute disarray. I fully believe that Andy Reid has lost this team and it would take a minor miracle for this not to be his last year in Philly. I haven’t loved how the Redskins have played lately, but they’re going up against a lame duck opponent here, so let’s take RG3 and the Skins to cover the 3.5 point spread.

Packers -3.5 @ Lions
This is a tough call for me. I finally put some stock into the Lions last week and they fell flat on their face in Minnesota. This week, they get the Packers, coming off their bye and winners of 4 straight. The Packers will be without the services of Clay Matthews, which is a big loss for a defense that already isn’t anything incredible. I think the Lions score some points, but I just don’t think they’ll be able to stop the Packers. Adrian Peterson torched them last week, and while the James Starks/Alex Green combo pales in comparison, they’re competent enough to keep the Lions honest should they key in on Rodgers alone. I expect this to be a shootout, but let’s take the Packers to cover the 3.5 point spread.

Cardinals +9.5 @ Falcons
So first, let me say this: The Falcons are very good and the Cardinals are very bad. With that out of the way, let me tell you why this spread is too high. If the Cardinals have done one thing well this year, it’s been defend the passing game. They’re allowing less than 200 yards passing per game and are 2nd in the league in that department. The Falcons are clearly a passing team, with the likes of Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez, and if the Cardinals are able to slow that down just enough, I think they can hang around in this one. A strong breaze could knock Michael Turner over these days and unless the Falcons move to Jacquizz Rodgers, they will continue to be a one dimensional team. The Cardinals run game is MIA as well, and they have problems protecting their QB, whichever retread it may be, but call me crazy, I like them to only lose this by a TD or so. It’ll be ugly, but take the Cardinals to hang close enough to cover, with the Falcons winning the game.

Bucs -1.5 @ Panthers
This feels like a bit of a trap spot, but it’s not going to change my feelings on the game. The Bucs are rolling offensively, with Josh Freeman looking much more like the 2010 Josh Freeman and Doug Martin continuing to establish himself as one of the top young backs in the league. The Bucs are in the midst of a push for the playoffs and you can better believe that rookie head coach Greg Schiano will have his team in position to not overlook a game like this.

Browns +8 @ Cowboys
The Cowboys picked up a much needed victory this past week in Philly, but it’s hard to guage if that means anything at all. That victory was their first by more than a TD and the final score is really not indicitive of how close that game was. The Browns have made a habit of playing close games as well, seemingly battling every week only to fall short when it counts the most. The Cowboys will win this game, but as they often do, will play down to the level of their opponent. Take the Browns to cover the 8 points and the Cowboys to win the game.

Rams -3.5 vs Jets
I must rant for a second. The Jets are the biggest joke in the NFL, led by the biggest joke of a coach in the NFL, Rex Ryan. The amount of media coverage ESPN devotes to Tim Tebow is embarassing. Okay, rant over. Seriously though, the Jets are a bad football team. They’ve been blown out their last 2 games and now they’re all over the news because someone said the backup QB is terrible. Why that’s news is beyond me, but the point is, this is a team with a lack of talent, leadership, and focus. The Rams should win this game easily. You can confidently take the Rams to cover the 3.5 points here.

Jags +15 @ Texans
The huge spreads in the NFL always make for an interesting pick. An interesting thing about the Jags this season: they have played significantly better on the road than at home. At home, their average margin of defeat has been 21.8 points. They’re 0-5. On the road, they’ve got a victory, 2 overtime losses, and a 9 point loss in Lambeau against the Packers. Will they beat the Texans? Of course they won’t. But the Texans are coming off a big, emotional victory in Chicago and the Jags have absolutely no pressure, so let’s take them to cover the big number. Jags +15, Texans win the game.

Bengals -3.5 @ Chiefs
There are two things that every good team has: a franchise quarterback and a good coach behind him. I think you could certainly argue that the Chiefs have the worst QB/Coach combination in the league. After a tough overtime defeat against the Steelers, the Chiefs are getting a bit of credit with this line here and one thing I’ve learned, the second you give the Chiefs any credit or respect, they will make you look silly. Last week was their Superbowl: Monday Night Football, whole country watching, in Pittsburgh..and they lost. Back home, back to the fans that hate their existence and back to ‘just another game’, a game that the Bengals will roll in. Take the Bengals to cover the 3.5 point spread.

Raiders +4.5 vs Saints
If you’re looking for a tough, defensive showdown, where points come at a premium, don’t bother with this one. These are two of the worst defenses in the league, particularly against the past, and coincidentally, both offenses move the ball through the air very well. This one is going to be the epitome of a shootout. I fully believe the Saints will win this game, but I just think the Raiders will be able to score enough to keep it a FG game. Something like 38-35 seems about right to me. Take the Raiders to stay within the number and the Saints to get the W.

Patriots -9 vs Colts
I think the Colts will be a trendy pick here and I understand that. Hell, I just ordered myself a CHUCKSTRONG shirt. They’re a great story and they’re starting to cook with gas now. But take a look at their games recently, and you’ll see that coincidentally they’re catching their stride right as they’re going through the cupcake part of their schedule. The Patriots will have their hands full trying to contain Andrew Luck, but I like them in this spot, at home, to make a statement against the young, upstart Colts. Take the Patriots -9.

Broncos -7.5 vs Chargers
The Broncos are really rolling lately and you can count me as a firm believer in them as a Superbowl contender. If you’ve read my previous picks, you might classify me as a hater of the Chargers and that would be mostly accurate. I’ve been dumfounded by the amount of respect Vegas and the betting public has given them, and my bank account is proof that I’ve been on the right side of most Chargers games. They are, at very best, an average team, but more often than not they are a bad team. The Broncos rolled them last game, scoring 35 unanswered points in the second half, and I think that dominance will continue. Take the Broncos -7.5.

Steelers +3.5 vs Ravens
Yes, I know Ben is out. Everyone knows that’s a major loss, and in turn the entire betting public has piled onto the Ravens side in this game. So what does a sharp bettor do when everyone goes left? You go right and give them the Kansas City Shuffle. The Ravens are still one of the worst road teams in the league and they would probably struggle to stop a lot of college running backs this season. The Steelers will return to their roots with a ground and pound attack with Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer, alleviating the pressure on vetern backup Byron Leftwich. This will be a good game, perhaps not as defensive as prior matchups, but I think the Steelers win a close one, and certainly don’t lose by more than 3. Take the Steelers as the home dog.

Bears +4.5 @ 49ers
I wasn’t able to find a line for this game anywhere except for ESPN, so it may have moved by this point. Both of these teams are top teams in the NFC coming off disappointing weeks last week. The Bears were beaten at home by the Texans, while the 49ers reminded Donovan McNabb that ties do exist in the NFL when they played a scoreless overtime against the St. Louis Rams. This should be an excellent game, a battle of two truly elite defenses. I honestly could see this being a 13-10 kind of game, so I will definitely take the Bears getting the points, but I’m also going to take them to pull the upset.

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NFL Week 10 Picks: Straight Up and Against the Spread

2012 NFL Season
Straight Up: 86-45
Against the Spread: 61-65-5

Another tough week, at least in terms of our spread picks, going 10-3 straight up, but just 5-8 against the spread. We fully plan on turning that trend around, so let’s get to some winning picks! (straight up pick is in bold):

Follow me on Twitter: @AdamWolff

(Spreads from Sportsbook.com as of 11/08)

Colts -3 @ Jaguars
I’ve been on the wrong end of a lot of games with these two teams, but I think I’m finally getting a handle on what they are. The Colts are a good team. They’re going to be a playoff contender, and it’s time we start to acknowledge that not only is Andrew Luck playing well as a rookie, he’s playing well regardless of tenure. On the other side of this equation, the Jags are bad. As in, bottom 5 in the league in just about every statistical measure. I know the Thursday night games have dramatically favored the home teams, and if there ever was a spot the Jags might show up, this would be it, but I can’t go against the Colts, a team that is rallying around Chuck Pagano in one of the best storyline’s of 2012. Take the Colts to cover the 3 points.

Patriots -11 vs Bills
I would be lying if I told you that there was no chance of the Bills making this one interesting. The Bills do show up a handful of times per season, and often times one of those games tends to be against the Pats. However, I think after dismantling the Rams in London and having their bye week, the Patriots are really going to hit their stride. What I know about this game is this: the Patriots are going to score a lot of points. Whether this is a cover or not will be solely determined by whether the Bills are able to go blow for blow. I’m betting they can’t, so let’s take the Patriots to cover the big number.

Bengals +4 vs Giants
Not that the Giants don’t need this game, as they’ve been in a bit of a lull themselves, but this is must win for the Bengals. They’re 3-5 (after being 3-1) and another loss could be the first proverbial nail in the coffin. They’ve played better of late, losing tough battles to the Steelers and Broncos, and I’m starting to think the Giants may be entering one of their typical mid-season swoons. I still think the G-Men pull this one out, but let’s take Cinci to cover the 4 point spread.

Bucs -3 vs Chargers
This is a line that I think Vegas just has wrong. The Chargers have played well 4 times this season; twice against Kansas City, against Oakland, and against Tennessee. In games where they’ve faced legitimate NFL talent, they’ve been outclassed every time. They’re an average to below average football team that continues to be given far too much respect from the betting public. Their saving grace in this game is that they might match up well enough to keep this interesting, as they’ve been pretty good against the run, and that’s precisely what is becoming the Bucs bread and butter. Rookie Doug Martin, the Muscle Hampster, rumbled for 251 yards last week in Oakland, and I for one am very anxious to see what his encore performance brings. I think the Bucs win this one by more than a TD, so let’s take them to cover the 3 points at home.

Lions -2.5 vs Vikings
This is a game I went back and forth on, but finally am settling on going with the Lions in the revenge game against the Vikings. Let me tell you why. First, these teams are going in opposite directions. Detroit is rebounding from a tough start and has won 2 straight. The Vikings are dealing with being a bit of a surprise to start the year and have now dropped 2 straight. Percy Harvin is doubtful to suit up on Sunday and without him, the Vikings offense is really a one man show, and although that show is a good one, their offense will be very predictable. Despite being banged up, Megatron and Matt Stafford seem to be finally getting on the same page, and Detroit is even running the ball better with Mikel LeShoure and Joique Bell. I expect a close game, but let’s take Detroit as the small road favorite to avenge their loss from earlier in the season.

Broncos -4.5 @ Panthers
I’ve habitually picked agains the Panthers all season and lately, it’s burned me. They’re playing much better football, despite being just 2-6 on the season. That being said, I can’t go against the Broncos, a team that I fully believe is one of the very best in the league. They’ve got 3 losses this season, to the likes of Atlanta (8-0), Houston (7-1), and New England (5-3). They will beat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, and although 4.5 points is a touch higher than I’d like to lay, I think they can pull this out and continue rolling. Take the Broncos as the road favorite.

Raiders +7.5 @ Ravens
Since their dominant opening season win against the Bengals, the Ravens really haven’t been impressive, despite going 5-2 over that span. They’ve managed to scratch and claw their way to victory over below average to average teams and got embarassed against the Texans. I fully believe they will beat the Raiders, but I don’t think by any means that it will be a blowout. So let’s take the Raiders to give a spirited effort in Baltimore and keep it close enough for the cover, but the Ravens to pull out the W.

Saints +2.5 vs Falcons
Has an undefeated team ever been so trendy to pick against? For a 3rd consecutive week, many pundits see the Falcons win streak coming to an end. My prediction here is based much more on the Saints hitting their stride and needing this game than it is about saying, ‘Oh, the Falcons aren’t going to win them all!’. The Saints defense still can’t stop anyone, so don’t be a bit surprised if this is a 45-42 kind of game, but I do like the Saints to pick up the victory. The division is out of reach, obviously, but a wild card berth is not. This game would be a huge step in the right direction, so let’s take the Saints to knock off the Falcons at home, getting 2.5 points.

Dolphins -6 vs Titanss
Since losing their first game of the season, the Dolphins are 4-3, with each of those 3 losses coming by 3 points. They’re a solid football team that, while they probably aren’t great at any one thing, they’re not terrible at anything either and play a pretty boring, sound style of football. Tennessee has also played better lately, save for a beatdown at the hands of the Bears last week, and Chris Johnson seems to finally be the Chris Johnson of old. I like the chances of the Dolphins being able to contain Johnson enough, though, and I’m not a believer in Matt Hasselbeck as anything more than a veteran game manager. Let’s take the Dolphins minus the 6 points at home.

Seahawks -6 vs Jets
The Seahawks are 5-4 this season. They are 4-0 at home. That’s really all you need to know about them. Bet them at home, fade them on the road. The Jets are pretty bad regardless of where they play and I think you might end up seeing the end of the Rex Ryan era soon. I fully expect the Jets to make the trip across the country to Seattle and lay an egg. I think the Seahawks win big here, so I’m completely comfortable laying the 6 points at home. Take them in a blowout.

Rams +11 @ 49ers
I very rarely like to make a play on the Rams outdoors, but 11 points just feels too high here. The Rams were completely embarrassed for all the world to see by the Patriots in London, and you had better believe Jeff Fisher will have these guys playing better after their bye week. The 49ers are one of the most complete teams in the league, a team that wouldn’t shock anyone if they were representing the NFC in the Superbowl, but I just don’t think they win this one as easily as soon people may think. I think this will be a low scoring, defensive game, something like 16-10 feels about right. Let’s take the Rams to cover the number, but the 49ers to win the game.

Cowboys -2 @ Eagles
Well, this game will be decided by who can get out of their own way enough to let some of the talent, which they both have, shine through. The biggest thing to me here is that the Eagles offense, particularly their offensive line, made the Saints look pretty damn good last week. That’s a Saints defense that hasn’t looked good at all until that point. The Cowboys, even without Sean Lee, are more talented than the Saints and I expect them to make Michael Vick’s day rough. I really wouldn’t be shocked to see Tony Romo waste away the game, either, but in this spot I like him and the rest of the ‘Boys to continue to bury the Eagles. Take the Cowboys -2.

Texans +1 @ Bears
What a matchup this is. In what could be a Superbowl preview, the Texans will head into Chicago, determined to be more impressive than they were in their last prime time showcase against an NFC foe (see: beatdown at the hands of the Packers). The Bears defense has been the story for them, as they’ve scored an astounding 8 touchdowns through 8 games. I don’t think they find the endzone this week, though, as the Texans are one of the best in the league at taking care of the football. This should be an excellent, excellent game, and I’m going to take the Texans to pull the slight upset. I think they’ll be able to get after Jay Cutler and I expect the Bear’s offensive line to be a storyline on Monday morning. You heard it here: Texans pull the upset. Take them plus the point.

Steelers -12 vs Chiefs
If our Sunday night game is the game of the week, our Monday night game might be the laugher of the week. To say the Chiefs are a trainwreck would be disrespectful to trainwrecks. The thing is, I honestly believe that with a better QB, this could be a playoff team, but for right now, they just can’t get out of their own way. The Chiefs are -20 in turnover differential. Let that sink in a moment; -20! The next worst team in the entire league is Dallas at -9. They give the ball up at a shockingly high pace and the Steelers are certainly not going to be the one’s to change that. The Steelers are 5-3 and seem to have regained their mojo. For all the conversation that’s been had regarding their aging defense, they’re tops in the league in pass yards allowed and in the top 10 in rush yards allowed. I don’t think Todd Haley, now Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator, would be at all opposed to embarassing the organization that let him go, so let’s take the Steelers in a laugher. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised by a 3 TD or more margin of victory here.

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NFL Week 9 Picks: Straight Up and Against the Spread

2012 NFL Season
Straight Up: 76-42
Against the Spread: 56-57-5

After a great Week 7, we had our worst week in Week 8, going 8-6 straight up and an embarassing 3-11 against the spread. We’ll do better this week, so let’s make some picks in Week 9! (straight up pick is in bold):

Follow me on Twitter: @AdamWolff

(Spreads from Sportsbook.com as of 11/01)

Chiefs +7.5 @ Chargers
I think the Chargers win a tight, ugly, low scoring game here. Both of these teams have underwelmed to the fullest so far this season, and as much as I have been burned by the Chiefs this year, I’m going to go to the well once more and hope they can keep it close for me. The Chargers have been brutal over their last 6 quarters and I think it continues here. I expect them to win, but let’s take Kansas City to keep it close enough to cover. KC +7.5.

Broncos -5 @ Bengals

Packers -10 vs Cardinals

Browns +3.5 vs Ravens

Bills +10.5 @ Texans

Redskins -3 vs Panthers

Jaguars +6 vs Lions

Titans +4.5 vs Bears

Vikings +4 @ Seahawks

Bucs +2 @ Raiders

Steelers +3 @ Giants

Cowboys +3.5 @ Falcons

Saints -3 vs Eagles

 

Sorry for the lack of a writeup, very busy week. Normal format will be back next week. Let’s stack cash!

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